Friedrich Merz
Chancellor, Germany
Decisions from the two weeks to 13 October 2026
4 October 2026
Pledged fresh military aid on unannounced Kyiv visit
Merz arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit and pledged more military support to Ukraine. He unveiled fresh military aid and €8.5 billion in defense deals, saying Germany would not be intimidated. [1] [2] [3]
Merz's €8.5 billion aid answers Russian intimidation, but he cited no evidence and it locks in costly, hard-to-reverse commitments while serving his politics.
Instead: I would have pledged the aid with published threat data and reversible tranches tied to allies, not irreversible defense deals on personal political timing.
8 October 2026
Agreed UK-Germany security pact and closer military ties
Merz and UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham agreed closer Anglo-German military and economic ties and a security pact to counter hybrid Russian threats, according to a joint UK-Germany statement. [1] [2] [3]
Closer Anglo-German security pact counters hybrid threats proportionally, but it rests on no cited evidence and advances Merz's own political standing.
Instead: I would have published the hybrid-threat evidence first and tied the pact to specific benchmarks, not broad Anglo-German economic and military commitments.
13 October 2026
Vowed German pension reform bill by year-end
Merz vowed that a German pension reform bill would come by the end of the year. He said he would prioritise welfare reform over popularity. [1] [2]
Prioritising pension reform over popularity is politically brave, but Merz cited no data and the bill would be costly and hard to reverse.
Instead: I would have set the same end-of-year deadline but published actuarial evidence and reversible pilot measures before locking in a pension overhaul.
12 October 2026
Rejected Trump's Russian diesel deal for Europe
Merz said a Trump-Putin diesel deal was 'out of question' for Europe and that Germany and the EU would not follow Trump's lead on Russian diesel. He called for tougher sanctions against Moscow. [1] [2] [3]
Refusing Trump's Russian diesel deal and urging tougher sanctions is proportionate, but Merz cited no evidence and the stance serves his own politics.
Instead: I would have rejected the diesel deal with published supply and sanction-impact data, and built EU consensus before demanding tougher Moscow sanctions.